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Experts Say Global Emissions Have or Are About to Peak

The IPCC has set 2025 as the year by which greenhouse-gas emissions must peak if the world is to stay within the Paris climate agreement.


Leaders at COP21 in Paris in 2015

In its most recent assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the UN body that monitors climate science, said 2025 was the year by which greenhouse-gas emissions must peak if the world is to have a good chance of keeping global temperature rises within the 1.5-2°C limits specified by the Paris climate agreement.


All eyes are now on China. Forget what just happened in Baku - this is by far the most important climate story happening right now. The good news is that analysis by three venerable news agencies gives reason for optimism that emissions will peak either this year or next.


The Economist suggests there's reason for hope given the China’s economic slowdown and this year's unprecedented scale-up of renewables.


Bloomberg is predicting an emissions peak, driven by China's accelerating shift to clean technologies and a slowdown in heavy-polluting industries. "That combination has put China on course for a scenario considered almost inconceivable at the start of this decade - the country’s carbon emissions may already have peaked, well ahead of Xi’s 2030 deadline."


The Financial Times reports that "A survey of 33 domestic and 11 international experts found 44% expected the emissions from the world’s biggest polluter had either peaked already or will peak by 2025, more than double the 21% in 2023 who responded positively, and up from just 15% in 2022."

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