The global population is set to peak at 10.3 billion and begin declining by 2084, roughly twenty years earlier than estimates from two years ago, according to the United Nations biennial population report.
Changes in population growth and fertility rates are closely tracked because they have major social and economic implications around the world. The number of people on Earth also has an impact on the planet itself, affecting rates of consumption, energy use, industrial production, and the availability of resources.
Analysts attribute the earlier peak to a broad decline in the number of children a woman will birth on average. Worldwide, that figure has dropped from 3.5 to 2.5 in three decades and was closer to seven prior to the Industrial Revolution. Experts say women's empowerment, increased rate of successful births, and rising child rearing costs have contributed to dropping fertility rates.
Demographers theorize developed countries require a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman to keep the population constant. More than half of all countries have a rate below 2.1, including much of Europe, the US, Japan, China, and Russia.
The report forecasts that the world’s population will continue to swell over the next several decades - growing from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to a peak of nearly 10.3 billion people in 50 to 60 years.
The U.N.’s previous population assessment, released in 2022, suggested that humanity could grow to 10.4 billion people by the late 2000s, but lower birth rates in some of the world’s largest countries, including China, are among the reasons for the earlier-than-anticipated population peak.